Full record
HitmarketsPrecious metals (gold and silver) will rise over the several years following March 2020 (by ~2023).
A scored prediction by Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“I think precious metals are a great place for diversification over the next several years as a hedge against zero interest rates and the sheer scale of the expansion of the monetary base that's about to happen.”
Precious metals (gold and silver) will rise over the several years following March 2020 (by ~2023).
- Made on
- 2020-03-23
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-23
Resolves TRUE if gold and silver spot prices are higher at the ~2023-03-23 horizon (approx +36 months) than at 2020-03-23 levels. Operationalize 'rise' as a net positive price change over the window for both metals (primary weight on gold given liquidity).
TRUE for both metals: gold ~$1,500 (Mar 2020) -> ~$1,970-2,000 (Mar 2023); silver ~$12 (Mar 2020) -> ~$20-24 (Mar 2023). Primary weight on gold (higher liquidity) also positive. The March 2020 anchor sits at the COVID panic low, making the rise especially large. No conflicting credible evidence. Exact-to-the-day spot closes not pinned from a single primary feed (Kitco/exchange-rates pages did not surface the specific daily row), but multiple sources agree on the ~$1,500->~$2,000 gold and ~$12->~$22 silver moves, which decisively exceed zero. Outcome value not assigned per stage separation.
Sources
March 2020 Newsletter: Crashing Down Through Exter's Pyramid
lynalden.com ·
Evidence of what happened
Gold: near $1,500/oz during the March 2020 COVID liquidation (gold briefly fell below $1,500 around 2020-03-19/23; spot ~$1,500-1,560). By late March 2023 gold was above $2,000/oz (banking-crisis rally, ~$1,970-2,000 around 2023-03-23). Gold was substantially HIGHER (~+30%) over the ~36-month window.
Silver: low of ~$12.12/oz on 2020-03-19 (near the 2020-03-23 anchor). By March 2023 silver was in the low-to-mid $20s ($20.04 low on 2023-03-08; ~$24 by month-end). Silver was substantially HIGHER (~+70-90%) over the window. Both metals rose, so the criterion resolves TRUE.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Precious metals (gold and silver) will rise over the severa…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-03-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources