Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve balance sheet will exceed $7-8 trillion by the end of 2020.
A scored prediction by Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I'd be surprised to see the balance sheet end the year at under $7-$8 trillion.”
The Federal Reserve balance sheet will exceed $7-8 trillion by the end of 2020.
- Made on
- 2020-03-23
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.92
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-12-31
Resolves TRUE if the Federal Reserve total balance-sheet assets (H.4.1) are at or above ~$7 trillion as of end-2020 (2020-12-31). Operationalize the '$7-$8 trillion' floor at the lower bound (>=$7T).
Clear TRUE at the >=$7T floor: WALCL was ~$7.36T at 2020-12-30 (end of 2020), above the $7T lower bound of the stated $7-8T range. FRED WALCL is the primary H.4.1 series. The $7.36T figure sits comfortably inside the predicted $7-8T band. No conflicting evidence. Outcome value not assigned per stage separation.
Sources
March 2020 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Evidence of what happened
The Fed's total balance-sheet assets (H.4.1 / FRED WALCL) reached approximately $7.36 trillion by the end of 2020 (weekly statement 2020-12-30), up from ~$4.17T in early 2020. This is at or above the $7 trillion floor operationalized in the criterion. Criterion resolves TRUE.
Corroborating: the Fed increased assets from $4.2T (2020-03-04) to $7.6T (2021-03-03), passing $7T during 2020; the St. Louis Fed documented ~$3T of growth since end-February 2020, with the balance sheet already ~$7.08T by 2020-06-24 and continuing to grow through year-end.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.92- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve balance sheet will exceed $7-8 trillion…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-03-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources