Prediction record
MissmarketsThe US dollar will be weaker over the next several years from February 2020 (a multi-year dollar decline by ~2023).
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“my base case continues to be for a weaker dollar over the next several years”
The US dollar will be weaker over the next several years from February 2020 (a multi-year dollar decline by ~2023).
- Made on
- 2020-02-01
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2023-02-01
Resolves TRUE if the US Dollar Index (DXY) closes lower on 2023-02-01 (approx +36 months) than at the 2020-02-01 utterance level. A brief interim spike does not falsify; judged on the net change over the window.
Same directional conclusion as the January-2020 dollar record: DXY net HIGHER over the window, so a 'weaker dollar by ~2023' prediction is FALSE. Early-Feb-2023 exact close (~101-103) is above the early-Feb-2020 level (~97.5-98.5). The criterion explicitly allows interim spikes and judges net change — net is up. Exact single-source daily closes not retrievable (data vendors gated), but level comparison is decisive and uncontested. Outcome value not assigned per stage separation.
Sources
The Global Dollar Short Squeeze
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
DXY was around 97.5-98.5 in early February 2020 (utterance ~2020-02-01). By 2023-02-01 the DXY was roughly 101-103 (it had ended 2022 at 103.52 and was drifting down in early 2023 but still around the low-100s in the first week of February 2023). Net change over the ~36-month window is POSITIVE (dollar higher), so the criterion (DXY closes LOWER on 2023-02-01 than at 2020-02-01) resolves FALSE.
Corroborating context: DXY peaked at a 20-year high of 114.78 on 2022-09-27 then declined into early 2023, ending 2022 at 103.52 and ~103.47 by mid-March 2023 — all above the ~97.5-98.5 level of Feb 2020.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.78- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.78
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US dollar will be weaker over the next several years fr…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-02-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources