Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will begin expanding its balance sheet again by 2020 (possibly as early as Q4 2019), permanently buying Treasuries.
A scored prediction by Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“the Federal Reserve will begin expanding its balance sheet again by 2020 (or perhaps in this fourth quarter 2019)”
The Federal Reserve will begin expanding its balance sheet again by 2020 (possibly as early as Q4 2019), permanently buying Treasuries.
- Made on
- 2019-09-19
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2019-10-11
Resolves TRUE if the Federal Reserve began materially expanding its balance sheet (e.g. Treasury/T-bill purchases) on or before 2020-12-31 (the Fed announced ~$60B/month T-bill purchases in Oct 2019).
Clearly TRUE on the operational core: the Fed began materially expanding its balance sheet via ~$60B/month Treasury-bill purchases starting mid-October 2019, comfortably before the 2020-12-31 deadline (and the prediction even flagged 'possibly as early as Q4 2019'). One nuance for the score stage: the Fed explicitly characterized the Oct-2019 T-bill program as a technical reserve-management operation, 'not a change in the stance of monetary policy,' rather than the 'permanently buying Treasuries' QE framing in the claim; and separately, massive open-ended QE (Treasuries + MBS) followed in March 2020. The balance-sheet-expansion condition is met either way; o not assigned.
Sources
November 2019 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Evidence of what happened
Federal Reserve Board press release (2019-10-11): the FOMC directed the Desk to purchase Treasury bills at an initial pace of ~$60 billion per month, at least into Q2 2020, to maintain ample reserves — resuming balance-sheet growth well before the 2020-12-31 deadline.
NY Fed Statement Regarding Treasury Bill Purchases and Repurchase Operations (2019-10-11): operational confirmation of the ~$60B/month T-bill purchases plus term/overnight repos, beginning mid-October 2019.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will begin expanding its balance sheet…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-09-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources