Full record
HiteconomyThe U.S. will experience an economic downturn / recession in 2019 or 2020.
A scored prediction by Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I think the idea of an economic downturn in 2019 or 2020 is very reasonable”
The U.S. will experience an economic downturn / recession in 2019 or 2020.
- Made on
- 2018-12-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-06-08
Resolves TRUE if the U.S. entered an NBER-dated recession/economic downturn at any point in calendar 2019 or 2020 (the COVID recession began Feb 2020).
An NBER-dated recession began February 2020 (peak) with trough April 2020, squarely within the 2019-or-2020 window. Criterion satisfied. resolved_on set to the June 8, 2020 NBER peak announcement (the date the recession became officially dated). (Outcome value o not assigned.)
Sources
December 2018 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Evidence of what happened
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (the authoritative US recession-dating body), announcement June 8, 2020: a peak in US monthly economic activity occurred in February 2020, ending the 128-month expansion and marking the start of a recession.
NBER announcement July 19, 2021: the trough occurred in April 2020, making the COVID recession (Feb 2020 peak to Apr 2020 trough) two months long — the shortest US recession on record, but formally an NBER-dated recession within calendar 2020.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.77- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The U.S. will experience an economic downturn / recession i…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2018-12-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources