Prediction record
HiteconomyThe U.S. federal deficit will reach roughly 5% of GDP by 2020 even absent a recession.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“over $1 trillion in 2020. By that point, the deficit would be a whopping 5% of GDP every year”
The U.S. federal deficit will reach roughly 5% of GDP by 2020 even absent a recession.
- Made on
- 2018-11-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2020-12-31
Resolves TRUE if the U.S. federal budget deficit for 2020 was approximately 5% of GDP or more. The 'no recession' caveat is a one-sided condition (recession would worsen the outcome), so the claim of at least ~5% is checkable regardless; note a recession did occur (COVID), pushing the deficit far above 5%.
FY2020 deficit was 14.9% of GDP, well above the ~5% claimed. The criterion notes the '~5%' claim is a one-sided lower bound checkable regardless of recession, and a recession (COVID) did occur, pushing the deficit far above 5%. Even the pre-COVID FY2019 baseline (4.6% of GDP) was already near ~5%, and FY2020 blew past it. The at-least-~5% claim is satisfied. Caveat for later scoring: the 'even absent a recession' condition was NOT tested by reality (a recession did occur), so the counterfactual claim that 5% would have been reached without a recession is not directly verified — the actual FY2020 figure (14.9%) simply clears the threshold. (Outcome value o not assigned.)
Sources
November 2018 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
Congressional Budget Office (primary source), Monthly Budget Review for FY2020: the federal budget deficit totaled $3.1 trillion in fiscal year 2020, equal to 14.9% of GDP, up from 4.6% in FY2019 and 3.8% in FY2018. This far exceeds the claimed ~5% of GDP threshold.
Corrections
- conditional is conditional: The 'even absent a recession' clause is a one-sided strengthening caveat, not a gating condition. As a true 'if X then Y' conditional (X=no recession) it self-contradicts the resolved=TRUE status since X did not occur. As an unconditional ≥5%-of-GDP lower bound it resolves cleanly TRUE (14.9%).
- conditional condition: Reclassified unconditional; the recession remark is retained in statement.context as a one-sided caveat.
Score contribution
+3.82- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The U.S. federal deficit will reach roughly 5% of GDP by 20…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2018-11-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources