Prediction record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 will have a strong (rising) November/December in 2018.
A scored record for Lyn Alden, made on .
Scored record
Missmarkets“I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong November/December for 2018”
The S&P 500 will have a strong (rising) November/December in 2018.
- Made on
- 2018-09-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.79
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2018-12-31
Resolves TRUE if the S&P 500 index rose (positive combined return) over November-December 2018 (from Oct 31, 2018 close to Dec 31, 2018 close).
Criterion resolves on the Oct 31 2018 close to Dec 31 2018 close combined return. That return was clearly NEGATIVE (2,711.74 -> 2,506.85, about -7.6%), so November/December 2018 was NOT strong/rising. Fully resolved on primary index-level data. (Outcome value o intentionally not assigned per stage separation.)
Sources
September 2018 Newsletter
lynalden.com ·
Outcome evidence
S&P 500 daily closing levels: October 31, 2018 close = 2,711.74; December 31, 2018 close = 2,506.85. The index FELL ~7.6% over the November-December 2018 window (the exact Oct 31 -> Dec 31 span in the criterion), i.e. a negative combined return. December 2018 alone dropped >9% (worst December since 1931).
CNBC: S&P 500 posted its worst year in a decade in 2018, falling more than 6% on the year; Q4 2018 was the worst quarter in a decade (S&P 500 -13.5%), with a severe Nov-Dec selloff that briefly hit bear-market territory on an intraday basis around Christmas Eve.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.79- Confidence
- 55%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.79
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The S&P 500 will have a strong (rising) November/December i…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 6, 2026
- Made on
- 2018-09-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources