Full record
MisstechTesla will launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a paid robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, with no one in the car, in June 2025.
A scored prediction by Elon Musk, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“Teslas will be in the wild with no one in them, in June, in Austin. ... This is not some far-off mythical situation; it's five, six months away.”
Tesla will launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a paid robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, with no one in the car, in June 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-01-29
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-06-30
TRUE if in June 2025 Tesla operated a paid robotaxi service in Austin using unsupervised FSD with no human safety operator in the vehicle; FALSE if no such service ran or it required an in-car safety monitor.
Criterion has two prongs: (a) paid robotaxi service ran in Austin in June 2025 — TRUE; (b) it used unsupervised FSD with NO human safety monitor in the vehicle — FALSE (monitor sat in the front passenger seat with an e-stop). The criterion explicitly marks it FALSE if it required an in-car safety monitor, which it did. FALSE-direction resolution. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Tesla launched a limited paid robotaxi service in Austin on 2025-06-22 (flat $4.20 fare), BUT every ride carried a human 'safety monitor' seated in the FRONT PASSENGER SEAT with an emergency-stop button. So a paid service ran, but it required an in-car human safety monitor.
CNN and KVUE reporting on the June 2025 Austin launch confirm safety operators/monitors were on board (front passenger seat) able to stop the vehicles; rides were geofenced to part of Austin, 6am-midnight, ~10 Model Y vehicles.
KVUE headline and body: 'Tesla's robotaxis launch in Austin with safety drivers in passenger seat' — corroborates the in-car human safety monitor throughout June 2025.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla will launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a paid…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-01-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources