Full record
MisseconomyA (global) recession will persist until approximately spring 2024.
A scored prediction by Elon Musk, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“Just guessing, but probably until spring of '24.”
A (global) recession will persist until approximately spring 2024.
- Made on
- 2022-10-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.4
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-06-30
TRUE if a recession (as commonly recognized, e.g. NBER for the US) was ongoing and persisted until approximately spring 2024; FALSE if no such recession materialized or persisted to that point.
FALSE: no US/NBER recession occurred over 2022-2024; the economy expanded. The call is hedged ('just guessing, but probably'), so stated certainty is low (the quantify stage should reflect this), but the directional/timing forecast did not come true.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
The NBER declared no US recession for 2022-2024; US real GDP grew through 2023 (~2.5%) and into 2024 and unemployment stayed low. The predicted recession persisting until spring 2024 did not occur.
Contemporary coverage records the forecast of a recession lasting until spring 2024; the subsequent macro record shows expansion, not a recession, over that window.
Corrections
- Quote sourcing: The tweet itself was not fetched; provenance rests on reputable outlets (Forbes/CNBC/Axios) carrying the first-person direct quote. reputable_secondary_direct is the accurate tier — still primary-equivalent, still passes quote_exact; scoring unaffected.
Effect on the score
-1.4- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
A (global) recession will persist until approximately sprin…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources