Prediction record
MisstechTesla will complete Full Self-Driving (with safety level significantly greater than a human) by the end of 2022.
A scored record for Elon Musk, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“My personal guess is that we'll achieve Full Self-Driving this year, yes, with safety level significantly greater than present.”
Tesla will complete Full Self-Driving (with safety level significantly greater than a human) by the end of 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-01-26
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-31
TRUE if by 2022-12-31 Tesla had COMPLETED Full Self-Driving at a safety level significantly greater than its then-present (2021) level — Musk's own 'significantly greater than present' standard on the Q4 2021 call; otherwise FALSE.
Re-aligned to the sacred verbatim's 'significantly greater than present' standard (a lower/fairer bar than 'than a human'). FALSE: Tesla's FSD remained SAE Level 2 'Supervised' beta through 2022-12-31 per Tesla's own product classification; the November 2022 wide release was still driver-supervised, not completed autonomy above the prior safety level. No credible source claims Tesla completed greater-than-present autonomous safety by end of 2022. Original FALSE rationale retained; criterion realignment logged in verification.corrections and human_review.
Sources
Outcome evidence
At end of 2022 Tesla's FSD remained an SAE Level 2 driver-assist system (FSD Beta), requiring an attentive driver ready to take control at all times; responsibility stayed with the driver, not the system. It was never certified/operating at a safety level significantly greater than a human, and the November 2022 wide release was still supervised beta, not autonomy.
Wikipedia's dedicated list of Musk's autonomous-Tesla predictions records the end-of-2022 'self-driving safer than a human / wide release' goal as unmet: FSD Beta got wide release Nov 2022 but stayed SAE Level 2 (supervised), never reaching the reliability-in-excess-of-human-drivers Musk promised.
Contemporary Nov 2022 reporting: FSD Beta expanded to all North American owners regardless of safety score, but this was explicitly not Level 5 autonomy and still required constant driver supervision.
Corrections
- horizon type: 'this year' maps to Dec 31 of utterance year via the deadline table; deadline 2022-12-31 unchanged.
- Resolution criterion: Human-review realignment: match the resolution criterion to the sacred verbatim's actual standard ('than present', a lower/fairer bar than the 'than a human' wording in claim_canonical). Outcome unchanged — FSD remained SAE L2 Supervised through end-2022, FALSE under either bar.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Tesla will complete Full Self-Driving (with safety level si…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 7, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-01-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources