Prediction record
MisstechTesla's Full Self-Driving will let the car drive itself with reliability exceeding a human driver by the end of 2021.
A scored record for Elon Musk, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“I'm highly confident the car will be able to drive itself with reliability in excess of a human this year.”
Tesla's Full Self-Driving will let the car drive itself with reliability exceeding a human driver by the end of 2021.
- Made on
- 2021-01-27
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2021-12-31
TRUE if by 2021-12-31 Tesla vehicles could drive themselves with reliability exceeding that of a human driver; otherwise FALSE.
Criterion requires that by 2021-12-31 Tesla vehicles could drive themselves with reliability exceeding a human driver. At year-end 2021 FSD was still a supervised SAE Level 2 beta requiring constant attention; Musk himself moved the safer-than-human claim to 2022, confirming the end-2021 target was unmet. Condition not met. No conflicting credible evidence.
Sources
Outcome evidence
At Tesla's Q4 2021 earnings call (Jan 26-31, 2022), Musk said he would be 'shocked if we do not achieve Full Self-Driving safer than human this year' — i.e., pushing the safer-than-human target into 2022, confirming it had NOT been achieved by end of 2021.
As of late Jan 2022, FSD Beta remained a Level 2 system requiring constant driver supervision at all times and was described as 'a lot more limited than many people hoped and quite far from Musk's original promise' — cars could attempt local/highway driving with supervision but 'the capacity wouldn't be good.' It did not exceed human-driver reliability.
Corrections
- horizon type: 'this year' is a deadline-inference-table phrase (→ Dec 31 of utterance year), not an explicitly stated date; deadline 2021-12-31 unchanged. No scoring impact.
Score contribution
-1.86- Confidence
- 90%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Tesla's Full Self-Driving will let the car drive itself wit…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 7, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-01-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources