Full record
MisstechTesla will complete the basic functionality for Level 5 (full) autonomous driving by the end of 2020.
A scored prediction by Elon Musk, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.”
Tesla will complete the basic functionality for Level 5 (full) autonomous driving by the end of 2020.
- Made on
- 2020-07-09
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-12-31
TRUE if by 2020-12-31 Tesla completed the basic functionality for Level 5 (full) autonomy; otherwise FALSE.
Criterion requires Tesla to have completed 'basic functionality for Level 5 (full) autonomy' by 2020-12-31. Actual state at year-end 2020 was SAE Level 2 (constant human supervision required) — not Level 5. Condition not met. No conflicting credible evidence; even Tesla's own regulatory filings confirm Level 2 classification.
Sources
Tesla (TSLA): Elon Musk says 'very close' to level 5 autonomy complete
Electrek ·
Elon Musk: Tesla Will Have Level 5 Self-Driving Cars This Year
Forbes ·
Level 5 Autonomous Driving Is Within Tesla's Reach, Elon Musk Tells WAIC
Yicai Global ·
Elon Musk: Level 5 Autonomous Driving 'Very Close'
The Truth About Cars ·
List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk
Wikipedia ·
Evidence of what happened
On July 9, 2020 (WAIC), Musk said 'I remain confident that we will have basic functionality for level 5 autonomy this year' and 'there are no fundamental challenges remaining for level 5 autonomy' — establishing the end-2020 target. This is the prediction itself.
By the end of 2020 Tesla had NOT completed basic Level 5 functionality. Its most advanced product was the Oct 2020 FSD Beta, an SAE Level 2 system requiring constant driver supervision — far below Level 5 (no human attention, any conditions). Tesla's own Nov 2020 DMV letter classified FSD City Streets as Level 2 ADAS.
FSD remained a supervised Level 2 driver-assistance system requiring the driver to monitor and intervene at all times through the end of 2020 and well beyond — no Level 5 basic functionality was delivered.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla will complete the basic functionality for Level 5 (fu…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-07-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources