Prediction record
MisstechTesla's Full Self-Driving will be feature-complete during 2019 (the car can find you in a parking lot, pick you up, and drive to your destination without intervention).
A scored record for Elon Musk, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark.”
Tesla's Full Self-Driving will be feature-complete during 2019 (the car can find you in a parking lot, pick you up, and drive to your destination without intervention).
- Made on
- 2019-02-19
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.65
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2019-12-31
TRUE if by 2019-12-31 Tesla FSD was feature-complete such that the car could find the owner in a parking lot, pick them up, and drive to their destination with no human intervention; otherwise FALSE.
Criterion: by 2019-12-31 FSD feature-complete such that the car finds the owner in a parking lot, picks them up, and drives to destination with no human intervention. Not met. Smart Summon (Sept 2019) is a supervised, low-speed, line-of-sight feature and does not satisfy the intervention-free door-to-destination criterion. resolved_on = deadline 2019-12-31. Sources concordant; no contrary evidence.
Sources
Outcome evidence
In February 2019 (Ark Invest podcast, ~Feb 19, 2019) Musk said verbatim he expected FSD to be 'feature complete... this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year' — matching the record's criterion exactly. Prediction ledger records this quote and marks it not achieved.
By end of 2019 Tesla FSD was not feature-complete to that spec: no production capability let a car autonomously find its owner in a parking lot, pick them up, and drive to a destination without intervention. FSD remained Level 2 requiring an attentive driver; the 'Smart Summon' feature released Sept 2019 was a low-speed, line-of-sight, actively-supervised parking-lot retrieval — not the intervention-free find-you-and-drive-to-destination capability claimed. Tesla's own robotaxi/unsupervised ambitions slipped for years afterward.
Later coverage confirms the 2019 feature-complete-and-robotaxi timeline slipped repeatedly (a driver-supervised internal ride-hailing app only began employee testing in early 2024; a public robotaxi effort launched far later), corroborating that the 2019 feature-complete claim was not met by 2019-12-31.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-2.65- Confidence
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- -2.65
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Tesla's Full Self-Driving will be feature-complete during 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 7, 2026
- Made on
- 2019-02-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources