Full record
MisstechTesla self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100-200% safer than a human driver by the end of 2019.
A scored prediction by Elon Musk, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person.”
Tesla self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100-200% safer than a human driver by the end of 2019.
- Made on
- 2018-03-11
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2019-12-31
TRUE if by 2019-12-31 Tesla self-driving covered essentially all driving modes and was demonstrably at least 100% safer than a human driver; otherwise FALSE.
Two-pronged criterion (essentially all modes of driving AND demonstrably >=100% safer than a human by 2019-12-31). Neither prong met: system was Level 2 supervised, did not cover all modes, and no credible demonstration of a >=100% safety improvement as an autonomous driver existed. The '100% to 200% safer' phrasing is Musk's own from the same March 11, 2018 SXSW Q&A; the aggregator quotes the 'all modes' half verbatim. resolved_on = deadline 2019-12-31, when the two-year target lapsed unmet. No contrary evidence.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
At SXSW on March 11, 2018, Musk predicted Tesla self-driving would 'encompass all modes of driving by the end of next year' (end of 2019); widely reported alongside his framing that it would be substantially safer than a human (his '100% to 200% safer than a person' phrasing). Prediction ledger records the exact 'all modes of driving by the end of next year' quote, dates it March 11, 2018, and marks it NOT achieved by end of 2019.
By the end of 2019 Tesla self-driving did not cover essentially all driving modes and was not autonomous at all: FSD/Autopilot remained SAE Level 2, requiring an attentive driver ready to take over, and 'does not make the vehicle autonomous.' It therefore also did not demonstrate a rigorously established 100%+ safety-vs-human margin as a self-driving system.
Consumer Reports' review of Musk's self-driving forecasts documents this SXSW-era 'all modes' / dramatically-safer-than-human prediction and its failure to materialize on schedule, characterizing the marketing as running well ahead of the technology.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2018-03-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources