Full record
MisstechSpaceX will land at least two uncrewed cargo ships on Mars in the 2022 launch window.
A scored prediction by Elon Musk, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational.”
SpaceX will land at least two uncrewed cargo ships on Mars in the 2022 launch window.
- Made on
- 2017-09-29
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
TRUE if SpaceX landed at least two uncrewed cargo spacecraft on Mars in the 2022 Earth-Mars transfer window; otherwise FALSE.
Criterion: TRUE if SpaceX landed at least two uncrewed cargo spacecraft on Mars in the 2022 Earth-Mars transfer window. FALSE — none landed; Starship had not even flown an orbital test by the end of 2022. No conflicting evidence. Resolved_on = deadline (2022-12-31), when the 2022 window definitively closed with no such landing.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
SpaceX landed zero cargo spacecraft on Mars in the 2022 window. Wikipedia (SpaceX Mars colonization program): the 2017 target of an uncrewed Starship Mars landing in 2022 was not met; the mission never reached the orbital launch phase. Starship's first integrated/orbital test flight did not occur until April 2023 — after the 2022 Earth-Mars transfer window closed.
List of Starship launches: Starship's first orbital-class flight test was 2023-04-20 (which failed/exploded); no Starship reached orbit or departed for Mars during 2022, so zero cargo ships landed on Mars in the 2022 window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
SpaceX will land at least two uncrewed cargo ships on Mars…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2017-09-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources