Prediction record
MisstechSpaceX will land at least two uncrewed cargo ships on Mars in the 2022 launch window.
A scored record for Elon Musk, made on .
Scored record
Misstech“That's not a typo — although it is aspirational.”
SpaceX will land at least two uncrewed cargo ships on Mars in the 2022 launch window.
- Made on
- 2017-09-29
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2022-12-31
TRUE if SpaceX landed at least two uncrewed cargo spacecraft on Mars in the 2022 Earth-Mars transfer window; otherwise FALSE.
Criterion: TRUE if SpaceX landed at least two uncrewed cargo spacecraft on Mars in the 2022 Earth-Mars transfer window. FALSE — none landed; Starship had not even flown an orbital test by the end of 2022. No conflicting evidence. Resolved_on = deadline (2022-12-31), when the 2022 window definitively closed with no such landing.
Sources
Outcome evidence
SpaceX landed zero cargo spacecraft on Mars in the 2022 window. Wikipedia (SpaceX Mars colonization program): the 2017 target of an uncrewed Starship Mars landing in 2022 was not met; the mission never reached the orbital launch phase. Starship's first integrated/orbital test flight did not occur until April 2023 — after the 2022 Earth-Mars transfer window closed.
List of Starship launches: Starship's first orbital-class flight test was 2023-04-20 (which failed/exploded); no Starship reached orbit or departed for Mars during 2022, so zero cargo ships landed on Mars in the 2022 window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.46- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.46
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
SpaceX will land at least two uncrewed cargo ships on Mars…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 7, 2026
- Made on
- 2017-09-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources