Full record
MisstechSpaceX will land humans on Mars, launching in late 2024 with arrival in early 2025.
A scored prediction by Elon Musk, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“We aspire to launch in late 2024 with an arrival in early 2025.”
SpaceX will land humans on Mars, launching in late 2024 with arrival in early 2025.
- Made on
- 2016-09-27
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.62
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
TRUE if SpaceX launched a crewed spacecraft toward Mars in late 2024; otherwise FALSE.
Criterion: TRUE if SpaceX launched a crewed spacecraft toward Mars in late 2024. FALSE — no such launch occurred. This is the 27 Sep 2016 IAC-derived claim; same underlying reality as the sibling 2024 crewed-launch record. No conflicting evidence. Resolved_on = deadline (2024-12-31).
Sources
Evidence of what happened
No crewed SpaceX spacecraft was launched toward Mars in late 2024 (or at any time in 2024). As of Sept 2024 SpaceX's stated plan was uncrewed Starships in the 2026 window first, with crewed flights only years afterward. No human has ever been launched toward Mars.
Space.com coverage of Musk's Sept 2024 statement: first Mars Starships (2026 window) to be uncrewed; crewed missions to follow later — confirming no late-2024 crewed Mars launch.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.62- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
SpaceX will land humans on Mars, launching in late 2024 wit…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2016-09-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources