Full record
MisstechAutonomous driving will be a solved problem and Teslas will drive themselves within a few years (by ~2018).
A scored prediction by Elon Musk, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“I view it as a solved problem. We know exactly what to do and we will be there in a few years.”
Autonomous driving will be a solved problem and Teslas will drive themselves within a few years (by ~2018).
- Made on
- 2015-03-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2018-03-17
TRUE if by 2018-03-17 Tesla vehicles could drive themselves without human intervention (autonomous driving effectively solved/deployed); otherwise FALSE.
Criterion asks whether by 2018-03-17 Tesla vehicles could drive themselves without human intervention (autonomous driving effectively solved/deployed). FALSE. As of March 2018 Tesla shipped Enhanced Autopilot (Navigate on Autopilot / lane changes) but it was SAE Level 2 with mandatory driver supervision; autonomous driving was neither solved nor deployed. The Walter Huang fatal Autopilot crash occurred March 2018, underscoring that supervision was still required. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
At an Nvidia conference on 2015-03-17 Musk said of autonomous driving: 'I view it as a solved problem. We know exactly what to do and we will be there in a few years.' By the ~2018 horizon this had not been achieved; Tesla remained a supervised Level 2 driver-assist system.
Tesla Autopilot/FSD has been SAE Level 2 from launch through 2018 and beyond — 'requires the driver to monitor the driving at all times and be prepared to take control at a moment's notice.' Tesla never delivered a system that drives without human supervision (Level 3/4/5); as of July 2026 full-autonomy goals 'are still to be met.' In April 2026 Musk stated HW3 cars lack unsupervised FSD capability.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.86- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Autonomous driving will be a solved problem and Teslas will…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2015-03-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources