Full record
MisstechTesla vehicles will be able to drive 90% of miles autonomously within three years (by 2016).
A scored prediction by Elon Musk, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years.”
Tesla vehicles will be able to drive 90% of miles autonomously within three years (by 2016).
- Made on
- 2013-09-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2016-09-17
TRUE if by 2016-09-17 Tesla vehicles could drive at least 90% of miles driven autonomously (without human intervention); otherwise FALSE.
Criterion asks whether by 2016-09-17 Tesla could drive >=90% of miles autonomously without human intervention. FALSE. Tesla Autopilot was SAE Level 2 (mandatory continuous driver supervision, hands-on-wheel) throughout the period; it delivered driver-assist (TACC + Autosteer on divided highways), not autonomous-miles capability. Musk's own 2013 target is documented as unmet. Multiple independent sources (Wikipedia predictions list, Consumer Reports timeline) concur it was not met. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk
Wikipedia ·
Evidence of what happened
Wikipedia's dedicated list of Musk's autonomy predictions records the Sept 2013 claim ('We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years', deadline 2016) as NOT MET. Tesla never achieved a capability to drive 90% of miles autonomously by 2016.
As of the 2016-09-17 deadline, Tesla's shipping system was AP1 (HW2 arrived Oct 2016, one month AFTER deadline). Autopilot provided Traffic-Aware Cruise Control and Autosteer (lane-centering) only, classified SAE Level 2, requiring the driver to monitor at all times and keep hands on the wheel. No capability to drive any share of miles without human intervention existed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla vehicles will be able to drive 90% of miles autonomou…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2013-09-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources