Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin will form a local price low in June 2026.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“I would expect Bitcoin to set a low in June”
Bitcoin will form a local price low in June 2026.
- Made on
- 2026-06-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-07-07
Bitcoin prints a local price bottom during June 2026 — the lowest daily close of roughly the May–July 2026 window falls within June and price subsequently rallies, confirming June as a local low.
Two-part criterion — (1) lowest daily close of the ~May-July window falls in June, and (2) price subsequently rallies, confirming June as a local low. Both are satisfied as of the evidence date: BTC bottomed near $58k in late June (below anything in May, which traded ~$70k+, and below all July-to-date closes) and rallied ~10% into the low-to-mid $60,000s through early-mid July (above $64k on July 7-10; ~$63.7k on July 14). NON-BLOCKING CAVEAT LOGGED: the May-July window is not fully closed (evidence gathered 2026-07-14; July has ~2 weeks left). Contemporaneous late-June/early-July analyst commentary (CoinDesk June 30, 24/7 Wall St July 2) warned of a deeper slide to $48k-$55k; that has not materialized so far, but a fresh sub-$58k print in the remainder of July would reopen this and shift the window's lowest close out of June. As of now the local low with confirming rally has occurred, so status is resolved; resolved_on set to 2026-07-07 (the sustained rally above $64k that confirmed the bottom).
Sources
Bitcoin Falls to the 200W Moving Average
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin fell ~20.5% in June 2026 (worst month in ~4 years), closing below $60,000; the June low near $58,000 printed at the END of June (~June 30, intraday ~$57,950 — a 652-day low).
CoinDesk (July 7, 2026): BTC rebounded from late-June lows near $58,000, pushed above $64,000, extending a ~6% weekly gain; first week of July flipped to net ETF inflows (+$46.6M) after June's record ~$4.5B outflows — confirming the late-June low as a local bottom.
Crypto.com exchange BTC_USDT daily candles, July 8-14 2026: daily lows held in the $61.5k-$63.8k range (lowest July close ~$62,342 on July 13), all well above the ~$58k late-June low, and no new low below June's bottom through July 14.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will form a local price low in June 2026.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-06-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources