Prediction record

Hitcrypto

Bitcoin will form its next lower low in the April–June 2026 timeframe (a fresh low below the February 2026 low)

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoPrimary sourcecryptomarkets

Scored record

Hitcrypto

My guess is it'll be sometime April, May, June timeframe

Bitcoin will form its next lower low in the April–June 2026 timeframe (a fresh low below the February 2026 low)

Made on
2026-03-03
Outcome
Hit
Importance
2 / 5
Contribution
+1.51

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2026-06-25

Bitcoin trades below its February 2026 low at some point between 2026-04-01 and 2026-06-30

Cleanly resolved. Criterion = 'BTC trades below its February 2026 low ($60,074, Feb 6) at some point 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30.' BTC broke below the February low in late June, printing intraday lows near $58,075 (June 25) and staying sub-$60k through month-end (June 30 low $58,112), a margin of ~$2,000 below the February low — a fresh lower low well inside the window. resolved_on set to 2026-06-25, the first documented sub-February-low print in the daily data (the exact first breach may be a day or two earlier around June 24; immaterial to resolution since the window closes June 30). No outcome value assigned.

Sources

  • Bitcoin: A Bear Market State of Mind

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • February 2026 low was $60,074.20 (intraday, Feb 6, 2026).

    Evidence

  • Bitcoin traded well below the February low during the April-June window: daily lows of $58,075.92 (June 25), $58,269.13 (June 26), and $58,111.67 (June 30) — all below the $60,074 February low, inside the 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30 window.

    Evidence

  • As of June 2, 2026 BTC was still ~$66k-$67.8k and the February $60k low was only being framed as a possible re-test target, confirming the fresh lower low occurred later in June (second half of the month).

    Evidence

  • Early-June trader consensus (CNBC, June 3) that Bitcoin was set to slump to new 2026 lows after the sell-off, corroborating the late-June breakdown below the February low.

    Evidence

Corrections

  • tags: Tag dictionary: a pure crypto price/level bet takes crypto (primary) + markets (secondary) so the market-timing track stays continuous.

Score contribution

+1.51
Confidence
65%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
2 / 5
Contribution
+1.51

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

Bitcoin will form its next lower low in the April–June 2026…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 18, 2026
Made on
2026-03-03

How this profile was built

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Evidence firstMethodology