Prediction record
MisscryptoBitcoin declines and sets a lower low during the first half of April 2026
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misscrypto“I think Bitcoin will likely go down into the first half of April before bouncing”
Bitcoin declines and sets a lower low during the first half of April 2026
- Made on
- 2026-03-28
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-04-15
Bitcoin makes a lower low (below its late-March low, referenced near $60k) during the first half of April 2026 (on or before ~2026-04-15)
Deadline (2026-04-15) passed. Bitcoin did NOT make a lower low in the first half of April; it recovered steadily from the ~$66k late-March low to ~$74k by Apr 15. Prediction appears unfulfilled, but I assign no outcome value (o) — that is the quantify stage. Caveat for quantify: the written criterion anchors the late-March low 'near $60k', whereas the actual late-March trough was ~$66k; either anchor yields the same conclusion (no lower low), since April never traded below $66k in the first half.
Sources
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Late-March low reference: BTC slid to ~$66,008 on 2026-03-28 (broke below $70k on Mar 27; Fear & Greed collapsed to 13, 'Extreme Fear'). This is the operative late-March low. Note: the criterion's '~$60k' framing overstates the actual late-March trough, which was ~$66k.
Corroborating late-March low: crypto market recap for Mar 23–30, 2026 reports BTC sliding to ~$66K with peak fear.
First half of April 2026 BTC ROSE, it did not set a lower low: Apr 1 = $68,510.90; Apr 10 = $72,204.20; Apr 15 = $74,286.71; Apr 16 = $74,786.04. Every first-half-April print is ABOVE the ~$66k late-March low, so no lower low was made in the window.
Apr 1, 2026 opening print $68,510.90 (above late-March low).
Apr 16, 2026 print $74,786.04, confirming the mid-April level was well above the late-March trough.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-0.56- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- -0.56
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin declines and sets a lower low during the first half…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-03-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources