Prediction record
HitmarketsThe precious-metals complex (gold/silver) puts in a blowoff top during the first half of 2026
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“I think it's probably going to happen in the first half of this year”
The precious-metals complex (gold/silver) puts in a blowoff top during the first half of 2026
- Made on
- 2026-01-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-06-30
Gold and/or the metals complex reach a peak (blowoff top) during H1 2026 that is followed by a decline — i.e., the H1 2026 high is not exceeded later in the same top-formation window before turning down.
Criterion — 'gold and/or the metals complex reach a peak (blowoff top) during H1 2026 followed by a decline, with the H1 high not exceeded later before turning down' — is satisfied for both metals. Gold peaked 29 Jan 2026 (~$5,595 intraday ATH) and fell ~29% into late June; silver peaked 29 Jan 2026 (~$121.62 ATH) and fell ~46–47% by June. Neither exceeded its 29-Jan high again in H1. resolved_on set to 2026-06-30 because 'the H1 high is not exceeded later in H1' can only be confirmed at the close of the H1 window (the peak-and-decline itself was evident from early February). No outcome value assigned (scoring is a later stage).
Sources
A Deeply Concerning Chart for Stocks
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
World Gold Council Mid-Year Outlook 2026: the LBMA Gold Price reached a high of US$5,405.00 on 29 January 2026 and a low of US$4,001.80 on 25 June 2026; spot gold hit an intraday high of US$5,595.47 on 29 January and an intraday low of US$3,959.33 on 24 June. Gold peaked at its all-time high on 29 Jan (within H1) and declined ~29% through the rest of H1; the H1 high was not exceeded later in H1 — a textbook blowoff-top-and-decline.
Silver confirmed the same pattern: nominal all-time high of ~$121.62/oz on 29 January 2026, then a rapid ~47% collapse to ~$64 by 6 February (triggered by the Kevin Warsh Fed-chair nomination), trading near $64.83/oz by June 2026 — down ~46% from the January peak. Silver's H1 high (29 Jan) was not exceeded later in H1.
Shanghai Metals Market H1 2026 silver review: an extreme January spike (~30,900 yuan/kg) followed by a ~55% trend decline to ~13,816 yuan/kg by June, driven by squeezed spot liquidity and the Fed's easing-to-hawkish reversal — corroborating a January peak followed by sustained H1 decline.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: Recorded marker does not appear in the verbatim; actual certainty phrasing is 'I think it's probably going to happen'.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The precious-metals complex (gold/silver) puts in a blowoff…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-01-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources