Full record
HiteconomyJerome Powell is replaced as Chair of the Federal Reserve in May 2026.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“Powell is likely going to be replaced as chair of the Federal Reserve in May of 2026”
Jerome Powell is replaced as Chair of the Federal Reserve in May 2026.
- Made on
- 2025-12-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-05-22
Jerome Powell ceases to be Fed Chair and a successor is installed by the end of May 2026.
Criterion met: Powell ceased to be Fed Chair and successor Kevin Warsh was installed (sworn in May 22, 2026), within the end-of-May-2026 window. Note nuance: Powell remains on the Board as a governor after stepping down as Chair — but the claim concerns the Chair role, which was transferred. resolved_on = swearing-in date 2026-05-22.
Sources
Bitcoin Pre-FOMC
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Federal Reserve Board press release (May 15, 2026): Powell named chair pro tempore and 'will serve as chair pro tempore until Kevin M. Warsh is sworn in as the new chair' — confirming Powell's tenure as Chair ends and a named successor is installed.
Kevin Warsh sworn in as the 17th Fed Chair on May 22, 2026 (Senate confirmed 54-45), succeeding Jerome Powell. Successor installed within May 2026.
Kiplinger: coverage of Kevin Warsh's confirmation/announcement as new Fed Chair, corroborating the succession in May 2026.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Jerome Powell is replaced as Chair of the Federal Reserve i…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-12-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources