Prediction record
50% outcomeeconomyThe Federal Reserve will cut rates and the Bank of Japan will raise rates at the December 10, 2025 meetings.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
50% outcomeeconomy“In July 2024, the Fed cut rates while the BOJ raised rates, leading to the unwind of the carry trade. Bitcoin capitulated into it, and found a low 1 week later. Good chance this happens again on December 10th (Fed cuts, BOJ raises rates). So maybe Bitcoin finds a low mid-Dec?”
The Federal Reserve will cut rates and the Bank of Japan will raise rates at the December 10, 2025 meetings.
- Made on
- 2025-12-01
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-19
TRUE if BOTH the Federal Reserve cuts its policy rate AND the Bank of Japan raises its policy rate at their respective decisions on/around 2025-12-10.
Both underlying facts are settled (status resolved). The criterion requires BOTH a Fed cut AND a BOJ raise 'at their respective decisions on/around 2025-12-10.' The Fed cut did occur on 2025-12-10 (official FOMC statement). However, the BOJ had NO meeting on/around 2025-12-10; its December decision came at the Dec 18-19 meeting (announced 2025-12-19), where it did raise to 0.75%. So while both central banks moved in the predicted DIRECTION in December 2025, the BOJ raise did not happen on/around the specified December 10 date. The two-sided factual picture: (a) Fed cut on 2025-12-10 = TRUE as written; (b) BOJ raise 'on/around 2025-12-10' = did not occur on that date (occurred 2025-12-19). resolved_on set to 2025-12-19 (the date the BOJ decision — the last outstanding component — became known). This stage assigns no outcome value o and does no scoring; the AND-conjunction / date-tolerance judgment is left for quantify/score.
Sources
Tweet on Fed cut, BOJ raise on December 10th and Bitcoin low
X (Benjamin Cowen, @intocryptoverse) ·
Outcome evidence
OFFICIAL Fed source: FOMC statement dated December 10, 2025 states the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. The Fed CUT its policy rate on the specified date (on/around 2025-12-10). This satisfies the Fed half of the criterion.
BOJ meeting-schedule evidence: the Bank of Japan's final 2025 Monetary Policy Meeting was held December 18-19, 2025, with the decision announced Friday December 19, 2025. There was NO BOJ policy decision on or around December 10, 2025 — the BOJ did not meet on that date.
OFFICIAL BOJ source: at the December 18-19, 2025 meeting the BOJ Policy Board voted unanimously to raise the policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% (highest since 1995). The BOJ DID raise, but on 2025-12-19, not 'on/around 2025-12-10'.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.86- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- 50% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.86
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Federal Reserve will cut rates and the Bank of Japan wi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-12-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources