Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin stages a relief rally within approximately the next two to three months (of December 2025).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“I do think Bitcoin, you know, will have a relief rally at some point in the next couple of months or so”
Bitcoin stages a relief rally within approximately the next two to three months (of December 2025).
- Made on
- 2025-12-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.51
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-01-15
Bitcoin stages a notable relief rally (meaningful bounce) within ~2–3 months, by approximately early March 2026.
Criterion (a notable relief rally / meaningful bounce within ~2–3 months, by ~early March 2026) satisfied. At least two qualifying bounces occurred in-window: the ~+8% January institutional-inflow rebound (~$87.5k→$94.7k) and the ~+15–17% recovery off the early-February ~$60k lows into early March. resolved_on set to the January rebound as the first qualifying relief rally. Note: these were relief rallies within a larger downtrend — BTC continued lower afterward — but the prediction only required a relief rally, which occurred.
Sources
Bitcoin On-Chain Risk
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC staged a notable relief rally in January 2026: driven by >$1B of institutional inflows, BTC bounced from ~$87,500 to ~$94,700 (about +8%) before facing rejection near $94k–$96k — a meaningful bounce well within the ~2–3 month window (made 2025-12-08, deadline 2026-03-08).
A second relief bounce also occurred inside the window: after the Jan 29–Feb 6 sell-off to ~$60k, BTC recovered off the $60k support to ~$70,000+ by early March 2026 (roughly +15–17% off the lows), confirming a notable bounce before the 2026-03-08 deadline.
Corrections
- tags: Relief-rally = crypto price move; dictionary requires markets secondary on a pure crypto price bet to keep the market-timing track continuous.
Score contribution
+1.51- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.51
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin stages a relief rally within approximately the next…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-12-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources