Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin on-chain risk continues to decline in the first half of 2026.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“it does seem likely that that we are going to watch the onchain risk continue to drop more, especially in the first half of 2026”
Bitcoin on-chain risk continues to decline in the first half of 2026.
- Made on
- 2025-12-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-06-30
Cowen's Bitcoin on-chain risk metric continues to fall (net lower) through H1 2026.
Criterion asks whether Cowen's proprietary Bitcoin risk metric net-declined through H1 2026. Resolved from price evidence (the metric is fundamentally price-vs-band driven and BTC fell ~33% to 21-month lows) plus Cowen's own Q1/Q2 2026 risk memos. Transparency caveat: the exact metric series is proprietary/paywalled, so the direction is inferred from price and his published reports rather than a per-day metric readout; direction (net lower over H1) is unambiguous given the sustained decline.
Sources
Bitcoin On-Chain Risk
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Cowen's risk metric is a 0–1 normalized cycle-position indicator driven by BTC price relative to long-term trend/bands; a sustained price decline drives it net lower. BTC fell ~33% in H1 2026, from ~$93k at year-start to a 21-month low of $58,494 by 2026-06-30, so the risk metric declined net through H1 2026.
BTC posted its worst first half in four years, ending H1 2026 near $58k–$60k at a fresh 21-month low — consistent with a net-declining risk metric over the half.
Cowen's own published Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 Crypto (Macro) Risk Memos cover the risk-metric trajectory over H1 2026; his framework treated the period as a downside/reset phase with the cycle low still ahead (~Oct 2026).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin on-chain risk continues to decline in the first hal…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-12-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources