Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin does not rally back to its 50-week moving average before 2026 (no touch of the 50W MA during the rest of 2025).
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“I don't really expect that to happen until 2026”
Bitcoin does not rally back to its 50-week moving average before 2026 (no touch of the 50W MA during the rest of 2025).
- Made on
- 2025-12-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
Bitcoin does not rally up to touch its 50-week moving average before January 1, 2026.
Criterion (no upward touch of the 50-week MA before Jan 1, 2026) is satisfied: BTC stayed capped near $90k all December while the 50-week MA held ~$101–103k. resolved_on set to 2025-12-31, the close of the prediction window with no touch having occurred. Exact daily 50W-MA values were not pulled from a live chart, but the gap (>$10k) between the December price ceiling and the MA leaves no ambiguity.
Sources
Bitcoin Pre-FOMC
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin broke down below its 50-week EMA (~$101k) in mid-November 2025 and never reclaimed it for the rest of the year. Through December 2025 BTC was pinned in an $85,000–$90,000 range (rallies sold near $90k), while the 50-week SMA sat near $103k / 50-week EMA near $101k — so price never rose to touch the 50-week MA before Jan 1, 2026.
Year-end confirmation: BTC hovered ~$87,755 on Dec 28, 2025, far below the ~$101–103k 50-week MA band; peak of the year ($126,198) was on Oct 6, well before the prediction window. BTC never revisited the 50W MA in December.
FXStreet (Nov 17, 2025): 'BTC breaks major bull support: 50-week moving average' — documents the November breakdown below the 50W MA that BTC failed to recover before year-end.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin does not rally back to its 50-week moving average b…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-12-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources