Full record
HiteconomyThe Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at its next monetary-policy meeting.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“there's about a 75% chance the BOJ raises rates at its next meeting”
The Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at its next monetary-policy meeting.
- Made on
- 2025-12-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.5
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-19
The Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at its next scheduled monetary-policy meeting.
Criterion met: at the BoJ's next scheduled meeting after the Dec 9, 2025 prediction (Dec 18–19, 2025), the policy rate was raised 25 bps to 0.75%. resolved_on = decision announcement date 2025-12-19.
Sources
Bitcoin Pre-FOMC
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
CNBC (Dec 19, 2025): Bank of Japan raised its benchmark policy rate by 25 bps to 0.75% at its December 18–19, 2025 meeting — the first scheduled meeting after the Dec 9, 2025 prediction — highest level since 1995. This was the pundit's referenced 'next scheduled monetary-policy meeting.'
EFG International: BoJ Policy Board voted unanimously at the December meeting to hike the policy rate by 25 bps to 0.75%, a 30-year high, breaking from the two prior hold decisions.
Context/corroboration: CNBC (Jan 23, 2026) notes the BoJ subsequently held at 0.75% in January 2026 'after raising it to the highest level in 30 years in December' — confirming the December hike was the action at the next meeting.
Corrections
- horizon deadline: 'Next meeting' after Dec 9 2025 was the BoJ Dec 18-19 2025 meeting (announced Dec 19), not January 2026; record's own resolution already uses 2025-12-19.
Effect on the score
+3.5- How sure they sounded
- 75%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at its ne…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-12-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources