Full record
HiteconomyMacro headwinds for crypto/markets persist until approximately mid-2026.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“those macro headwinds are going to persist into about mid-2026”
Macro headwinds for crypto/markets persist until approximately mid-2026.
- Made on
- 2025-11-23
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-06-30
Restrictive macro/liquidity conditions persist through approximately mid-2026 (no clear macro-easing regime shift before ~June 2026).
Criterion met: restrictive macro/liquidity conditions persisted through ~mid-2026. The Fed paused easing in January 2026 and stayed on hold (3.5-3.75%) through the June meeting, actually tilting more hawkish by June rather than pivoting to easing.
Sources
Bitcoin and Main Street
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
J.P. Morgan / CNBC: The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its January 2026 meeting, pausing after three 2025 cuts (last cut Dec 2025), and remained on hold through the March and April 2026 meetings.
CNBC (June 17, 2026): Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% at new Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting and shifted notably hawkish — erased the earlier indication of a 2026 cut, pushed reductions into 2027-2028, and nodded to possible hikes amid an inflation spike tied to the Iran war / higher oil. No macro-easing regime shift occurred before mid-2026.
Corrections
- Date: Utterance date is the true source video's upload date (2025-11-23).
- horizon type: 'into about mid-2026' states the timeframe explicitly.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Macro headwinds for crypto/markets persist until approximat…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-11-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources