Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin's cycle top will occur in Q4 2025 (late 2025), followed by a market downturn/reset in 2026.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“Based on historical patterns, late 2025 aligns with the next likely top”
Bitcoin's cycle top will occur in Q4 2025 (late 2025), followed by a market downturn/reset in 2026.
- Made on
- 2025-11-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-06-30
TRUE if Bitcoin's cycle-high (all-time high for the cycle) occurs during Q4 2025 (2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31) and is followed by a market downturn in 2026 (Bitcoin trading materially below that peak, no new all-time high in 2026).
Both prongs of the written criterion are satisfied: (1) the cycle-high (ATH ~$126,198) occurred on 2025-10-06, inside Q4 2025; (2) a material downturn followed in 2026 (BTC ~$77K in Jan 2026, ~$64K by July 2026), trading well below that peak with NO new all-time high registered in 2026. The record's own deadline was 2025-12-31, but the criterion explicitly requires the 2026 no-new-ATH / downturn condition, which is confirmable through the window observed to date (July 2026); resolved_on set to 2026-06-30 as a conservative point at which both conditions were unambiguously verifiable. No conflicting credible evidence found. This stage assigns no outcome value o and does no scoring.
Sources
Benjamin Cowen Predicts Bitcoin's Next Major Peak in Late 2025, Followed by 2026 Downturn
MEXC News ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin reached its all-time high of ~$126,198 on Monday, October 6, 2025 (per CoinMarketCap data), which falls inside the Q4 2025 window (2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31). This satisfies the criterion's cycle-high-in-Q4-2025 prong.
Confirmation of the exact ATH: BTC priced at $126,198.07 on October 6, 2025 (above $126,279 on the Coinbase BTC/USD pair), reported as still standing as the all-time high into mid-2026.
Downturn prong confirmed: after the Oct 2025 peak, BTC fell to ~$87K by end of December 2025 and ~$77K in January 2026 — a ~30-39% drawdown, trading materially below the peak.
No new all-time high in 2026: as of July 6, 2026 BTC was trading ~$64,163, roughly 47-49% below the October 2025 peak; the $126,198 Oct-6-2025 high remains the all-time high and BTC has not exceeded $126,000 at any point in 2026.
Corrections
- horizon deadline: The claim's second prong (2026 downturn / no new ATH) resolves in 2026; the deadline must cover the latest resolvable component, not just the Q4-2025 top.
- Prediction timeframe: Align basis wording with the extended deadline.
Score contribution
+3.68- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.68
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's cycle top will occur in Q4 2025 (late 2025), foll…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-11-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources