Prediction record
HitcryptoThe bear market lasts at least 6 months from the October 2025 top (i.e., persists through at least ~April/May 2026), conditional on the October 2025 top being in.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“I think it's going to last at least 6 months”
The bear market lasts at least 6 months from the October 2025 top (i.e., persists through at least ~April/May 2026), conditional on the October 2025 top being in.
- Made on
- 2025-11-21
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2026-04-30
The bear market persists at least 6 months from the October 2025 top (no new bull-market/new-ATH regime before ~April 2026).
Criterion met, and the conditional (the Oct 2025 top being in) held: the bear market persisted well beyond 6 months from the Oct 6, 2025 top, with no new bull-market/new-ATH regime before ~April 2026. The May 2026 rally to ~$74k stayed far below the ~$126k ATH.
Sources
Navigating Bitcoin Bear Markets
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The October 2025 top held: total crypto market cap peaked at ~$4.27T on Oct 6, 2025 and fell to ~$2.0T by June 2026; BTC was down ~52-54% from its ~$126k ATH. No new all-time high or new bull-market regime occurred before ~April 2026 — the ~six-month-from-top milestone (~April 6, 2026) passed with the market still far below its highs.
By March 2026 BTC dominance was ~57% and BTC well below its ATH; the strongest H1-2026 rally only reached ~$74k in May 2026 — still roughly 40% below the Oct 2025 ATH — confirming no new-ATH/new-bull regime before the ~April 2026 checkpoint.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Record is resolved and resolution states the Oct-2025 top held; leaving condition_met null contradicts the finalized resolution.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The bear market lasts at least 6 months from the October 20…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-11-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources