Prediction record
HitcryptoThe altcoin/Bitcoin ratio ((Total2−USDT)/Bitcoin) drops into early December 2025 (selling back off after any brief November relief)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“it's going to likely allow total two minus USDT divided by Bitcoin to drop into early December”
The altcoin/Bitcoin ratio ((Total2−USDT)/Bitcoin) drops into early December 2025 (selling back off after any brief November relief)
- Made on
- 2025-11-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-10
The altcoin/Bitcoin ratio ((Total2−USDT)/BTC) makes a lower low, declining into early December 2025
Criterion (altcoin/Bitcoin ratio (Total2-USDT)/BTC makes a lower low, selling back off after the brief November relief and declining into early December 2025) is satisfied: after the mid-November bounce (a lower high), the alt/BTC ratio declined through late Nov into December, with alt-season index falling to yearly lows and TOTAL2 dropping hard while BTC held firm and dominance rose. Evidence uses alt-season index / TOTAL2 / dominance as proxies for the exact (Total2-USDT)/BTC composite, which is a TradingView-derived custom metric not directly quotable from a primary source; all available signals agree on direction (new lows into early December). No conflicting credible evidence found.
Sources
Bitcoin Dominance To Surge Into December
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
By early December 2025 altcoins sold back off after the November relief: CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index fell from ~25 (Dec 1) to 20 (Dec 4) while the altcoin market stayed 'subdued' and BTC held near weekly highs (~$93.5K) — a declining alt/BTC ratio into early December.
The altcoin season index continued to new yearly lows (15–17) later in December 2025 (down from a Sept 20 peak of 78), only ~21% of top alts outperformed BTC over the trailing 90 days, and TOTAL2 fell ~32% from its October peak (~$1.77T to ~$1.21T) while BTC dominance climbed to ~59.7% — confirming alts made lower lows relative to BTC.
Wintermute's market update confirmed retail rotating out of altcoins back into majors, signaling the end of the anticipated altcoin rally — consistent with the alt/BTC ratio selling off (lower low) after the brief November relief.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The altcoin/Bitcoin ratio ((Total2−USDT)/Bitcoin) drops int…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-11-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources