Full record
HitcryptoThe crypto/Bitcoin bull-market cycle tops (prints its peak) before 2025-12-31.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“I do think the cycle will be ending soon within the next, you know, before the end of the year”
The crypto/Bitcoin bull-market cycle tops (prints its peak) before 2025-12-31.
- Made on
- 2025-10-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
Bitcoin (and total crypto market cap) prints its cycle peak — highest daily close of the cycle — on or before 2025-12-31, followed by a sustained decline confirming the top
Criterion has two parts, both satisfied within the window: (1) cycle peak/highest daily close printed on or before 2025-12-31 → occurred 2025-10-06 at ~$126.3K; (2) 'followed by a sustained decline confirming the top' → confirmed by the multi-month, >30% decline through year-end 2025 continuing into 2026 (~52% by Feb 2026). Caveat for a later stage: this confirms the peak-and-sustained-decline within the criterion window; whether Oct-2025 remains THE ultimate cycle top (vs. a future higher high in a later cycle) is outside this record's dated criterion and does not affect resolution.
Sources
Ethereum to $5k?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin printed its cycle peak — a new all-time high of ~$126,296 — on 2025-10-06 (before the made_on date's forward window and well before the 2025-12-31 deadline). This is the highest daily close of the cycle to date.
A sustained decline followed and confirmed the top: BTC fell to ~$87,000 by end of December 2025 (~31% below the Oct peak) and continued to ~$67,550 by mid-February 2026 — a ~52% drawdown over ~122 days, the 7th-largest in Bitcoin history. Total crypto market cap fell in lockstep during the Nov 2025 risk-off.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin/crypto cycle-peak price call → crypto primary, markets secondary.
- certainty verbatim marker: 'most likely outcome' belongs to an earlier Ethereum passage in the same video (offset ~3369); the marker for THIS statement is 'I do think ... I don't think we have that much longer' (confirmed in transcript at offset ~5080).
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The crypto/Bitcoin bull-market cycle tops (prints its peak)…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-10-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources