Full record
HiteconomyUS construction-payroll year-over-year growth turns negative within a few months
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“within a few months, it it will turn negative”
US construction-payroll year-over-year growth turns negative within a few months
- Made on
- 2025-10-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-01-09
US construction employment (BLS) year-over-year change prints below zero in at least one month on or before the deadline.
Criterion (BLS construction employment YoY change prints below zero in at least one month on or before 2026-04-03) MET. Full monthly YoY within window: Oct 2025 -19k, Nov 2025 +12k, Dec 2025 -4k, Jan 2026 +53k, Feb 2026 +29k, Mar 2026 +38k. First negative reference month is Oct 2025; the 2025 government-shutdown delayed some fall-2025 BLS releases, so resolved_on is set conservatively to 2026-01-09 (Dec-2025 employment report window) by which negative YoY prints were unambiguously public in official data. Values are current official/revised FRED figures pulled 2026-07-14; earliest-vintage prints could differ slightly but the negative YoY is not marginal enough to be revision-sensitive on the sign for October.
Sources
The Labor Market and Bitcoin
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS/FRED USCONS (All Employees, Construction, seasonally adjusted): Oct 2025 = 8,243k vs Oct 2024 = 8,262k -> YoY -19k (-0.23%), a NEGATIVE year-over-year print. Dec 2025 = 8,272k vs Dec 2024 = 8,276k -> YoY -4k (-0.05%), also negative. Both months fall on/before the 2026-04-03 deadline.
Context corroborating a construction-jobs trough: reporting notes construction employment hit a recent low around October 2025 before recovering, consistent with the negative YoY prints in Oct and Dec 2025 (Nov 2025 and Jan-Mar 2026 YoY were positive).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US construction-payroll year-over-year growth turns negativ…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-10-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources