Prediction record
HitmarketsCommodities experience a pullback over the coming weeks.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“I would I would generally expect a pullback in the coming weeks in commodities”
Commodities experience a pullback over the coming weeks.
- Made on
- 2025-10-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-10-30
A broad commodities index declines from its 2025-10-09 level at some point within ~3 months
Criterion ('a broad commodities index declines from its 2025-10-09 level at some point within ~3 months') is directionally satisfied: a pronounced, broad commodity pullback (led by an ~11% gold correction below $4,000 in late October, alongside energy weakness and a November risk-off) occurred well within the window. CAVEAT for a later stage / possible needs_human_review: I could not retrieve the exact daily Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) series to confirm a specific index-level close below its precise 2025-10-09 value — the confirmation here is component-level (gold, the dominant weight, printed below its ~10-09 level in late Oct) plus qualitative broad-index evidence. If the scorer requires an exact index-level baseline breach, pull BCOM daily closes for 2025-10-09 vs. late-Oct/Nov lows to firm this up.
Sources
Palladium: Dubious Speculation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
A broad commodities pullback occurred within the ~3-month window. Gold — a heavily-weighted broad-index component — peaked at ~$4,381 in mid-October 2025 then corrected ~11%, falling below the $4,000 threshold by late October 2025 (i.e., below its early-October / ~2025-10-09 level of ~$4,000-4,050). Silver and precious metals sold off in tandem.
Bloomberg's 2025 commodity look-back shows a volatile Q4 with sector divergence and drawdowns (Energy -3% and Grains -2% for the year), plus a broad risk-off through November 2025 that hit metals and energy — consistent with a pullback in a broad commodities index from its early-October level at some point before 2026-01-09.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+1.84- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Contribution
- +1.84
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Commodities experience a pullback over the coming weeks.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-10-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources