Prediction record

Hitmarkets

Bitcoin's 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages cross within the next few weeks

A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .

VideoPrimary sourcemarkets

Scored record

Hitmarkets

The 50-day SMA, the 200 day SMA, they're probably going to cross in the next few weeks

Bitcoin's 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages cross within the next few weeks

Made on
2025-10-23
Outcome
Hit
Importance
2 / 5
Contribution
+1.84

Criterion

Resolution status
resolved
Resolved on
2025-11-16

Bitcoin's 50-day SMA crosses its 200-day SMA (a cross event occurs) within ~4 weeks of 2025-10-23.

Criterion asks only whether a 50/200-day SMA cross EVENT occurs within ~4 weeks of 2025-10-23 (deadline 2025-11-20), not its direction. A downward cross (death cross) was confirmed 2025-11-16, four days before the deadline. Cross type was bearish; the record's written criterion is direction-agnostic ('a cross event occurs'). Outcome value not assigned per instructions.

Sources

  • Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

    YouTube ·

    Source

Outcome evidence

  • Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed below its 200-day moving average on November 16, 2025 (a confirmed 'death cross' — a 50/200 SMA cross event), with price near $93,000, ~6 weeks after the Oct 6 ATH of ~$126,000. This falls inside the ~4-week window (Oct 23 to Nov 20). A cross event of the type the criterion specifies (50-day crossing the 200-day) did occur within the window.

    Evidence

  • Multiple outlets independently confirm the 50-day/200-day death cross formed in mid-to-late November 2025 following the ~25% drop from the October peak.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Score contribution

+1.84
Confidence
80%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
2 / 5
Contribution
+1.84

This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Provenance

Bitcoin's 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages cross w…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
July 18, 2026
Made on
2025-10-23

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Evidence firstMethodology