Prediction record
MisseconomyThe Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at its late-October 2025 meeting.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“there's like a 55 to 60% chance arguably that the Bank of Japan might raise rates in late October”
The Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at its late-October 2025 meeting.
- Made on
- 2025-10-07
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.98
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-10-30
The Bank of Japan announces an increase to its policy interest rate at its late-October 2025 meeting
Criterion (BOJ 'announces an increase to its policy interest rate at its late-October 2025 meeting') was NOT met — the BOJ held at 0.50%. Record is resolved; the claim is contradicted by the official decision. Outcome-value assignment left for a later stage.
Sources
Ethereum: Dubious Speculation
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
At its 2025-10-29/30 Monetary Policy Meeting, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.50% by a 7-2 vote (Tamura and Takata dissented in favor of a hike to 0.75%). No rate increase was announced.
Focus-Economics confirms the BOJ 'leaves rates unchanged in October' 2025; the hike expectation shifted to the 2025-12-18/19 meeting.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+0.98- Confidence
- 58%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +0.98
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at its la…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-10-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources