The Federal Reserve cuts the federal funds rate by 25 bps (not 50) at the September 2025 FOMC meeting

A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on 2025-09-17.

VideoQuote from the original sourceeconomy

Scored prediction

Hiteconomy

“we will just get a 25 basis point rate cut”

The Federal Reserve cuts the federal funds rate by 25 bps (not 50) at the September 2025 FOMC meeting

Made on: 2025-09-17
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5
Effect on score: +2.76

What counted as right

Status: resolved
Settled on: 2025-09-17

The FOMC's September 2025 decision is a 25 bp cut (not 0 and not 50).

Directly matches the written criterion (25 bp, not 0, not 50). Deadline = decision date; resolved same day. Official Fed press release is primary source.

Sources

Bitcoin: Pre-FOMC
YouTube · 2025-09-17
Source

Evidence of what happened

FOMC on Sept 17, 2025 cut the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25% (an 11-1 vote). This is a 25 bp cut, not 0 and not 50 — criterion met exactly.
Evidence
The lone dissent (Gov. Stephen Miran) favored a 50 bp cut, confirming the Committee explicitly chose 25 over 50.
Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

+2.76

How sure they sounded: 80%
Outcome: Hit
Importance: 3 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

The Federal Reserve cuts the federal funds rate by 25 bps (…

Methodology version: v1.0.0
Last computed: August 2, 2026
Made on: 2025-09-17

How this profile was built

Scored by independent judges 2026-07-18
Predictions gathered and sourced 2026-07-07
Independently verified against sources 2026-07-18

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