Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin experiences a larger price drop (major correction) within the next 6 months
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“Bitcoin within the next 6 months will likely have a larger drop”
Bitcoin experiences a larger price drop (major correction) within the next 6 months
- Made on
- 2025-09-22
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-11-04
BTC undergoes a peak-to-trough decline of >=20% at some point before 2026-03-22.
Criterion (BTC peak-to-trough decline >=20% before 2026-03-22) is met. First 20% breach dated ~2025-11-04 (fall below $100k from $126,210 peak = -20.7%); drawdown deepened to ~50% by Feb 2026. Prediction outcome favorable; do not assign o.
Sources
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC peaked at ~$126,210 on Oct 6, 2025, then fell below $100,000 on Nov 4, 2025 for the first time since June — described as 'completing a brutal 20% decline from its October all-time high of $126,210.' This crosses the >=20% peak-to-trough threshold well before the 2026-03-22 deadline.
The decline extended far past 20%: BTC dropped below $90,000 by Nov 18, 2025 (low ~$89,426), was 'down nearly 30% from its record high' by Dec 4, 2025, and reached ~$60,000 by early February 2026 — roughly a 50%+ peak-to-trough drawdown.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin experiences a larger price drop (major correction)…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-09-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources