Prediction record
HitcryptoBitcoin's cycle top for the current bull market occurs in Q4 2025 (a 2020-style extension into early 2026 is unlikely)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitcrypto“the cycle top will just occur in the fourth quarter of the year just like it did in 2013 just like it did in 2017 and just like it did in 2021”
Bitcoin's cycle top for the current bull market occurs in Q4 2025 (a 2020-style extension into early 2026 is unlikely)
- Made on
- 2025-09-29
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
BTC's highest price of the current cycle is set between Oct 1 and Dec 31 2025 and is not exceeded afterward.
Criterion (BTC's cycle-high set Oct 1-Dec 31 2025 AND not exceeded afterward) is met: top = ~$126.2k on Oct 6, 2025 (Q4); as of 2026-07-14 it has not been exceeded (BTC ~$62.7k per Crypto.com exchange data). The 'a 2020-style extension into early 2026 is unlikely' sub-claim also confirmed (price fell, no new ATH in early 2026). resolved_on set to Q4 window close (2025-12-31); 'not-exceeded' verified through 2026-07-14. Prediction outcome favorable; do not assign o.
Sources
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BTC set its cycle top at ~$126,198-$126,210 on Oct 5-6, 2025 (within Q4 2025), driven by a 'perfect storm' of ETF inflows, Fed rate cuts and a weak dollar. This is the highest price of the current cycle.
The Oct 6, 2025 top has not been exceeded since: BTC fell below $100k (Nov 4), below $90k (Nov 18), ~$60k by Feb 2026, with no new ATH in early 2026 ('did not exceed the $126,000 all-time high in January-February 2026'). Live exchange data on 2026-07-14 shows BTC ~$62,700 — still far below the Q4 2025 top, confirming no 2020-style extension into 2026.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin cycle-top price/level bet → crypto primary, markets secondary.
Score contribution
+3.82- Confidence
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- +3.82
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin's cycle top for the current bull market occurs in Q…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-09-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources