Prediction record
HiteconomyAfter the Fed's September 2025 rate cut, the long end of the yield curve (the 10-year Treasury yield) rises.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“the long end of the yield curve will likely go up after they cut rates”
After the Fed's September 2025 rate cut, the long end of the yield curve (the 10-year Treasury yield) rises.
- Made on
- 2025-08-14
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-12-31
The 10-year Treasury yield (long end of the curve) is higher in the weeks/months following the Federal Reserve's September 2025 rate cut than at the time of the cut.
Criterion (10Y higher in the weeks/months after the Sep 2025 cut than at the time of the cut) met: cut-day 10Y ~4.0%; through Oct–Dec 2025 the long end rose to ~4.1%+ (e.g., ~4.11% in early/mid November), with multiple outlets noting the curve steepened/rose after the cut — a notably atypical 'yields up while Fed cuts' episode. There was short-lived early-October softness, but the prevailing weeks/months-after level was higher. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
PPI Surges
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
On the Sep 17, 2025 cut day the 10-year Treasury yield dipped to ~3.999% (just below 4.0%) — the reference 'time of the cut' level.
By early/mid November 2025 the entire curve had risen since the cut; the 10-year traded ~4.11%, up from the ~4.0% cut-day level.
J.P. Morgan documents that 10-year yields INCREASED after the Fed began cutting in September 2025 — an unusual outcome vs. prior cutting cycles — consistent with a rising long end post-cut.
Official daily 10-year constant-maturity series (DGS10) for cross-checking exact levels around Sep 17 and through Q4 2025.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: The condition (Fed cuts rates in September 2025) objectively occurred — 25 bps cut announced Sep 17 2025 — so the record scores on Y.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
After the Fed's September 2025 rate cut, the long end of th…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-08-14
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources