Prediction record
75% outcomecryptoThe ETH/BTC ratio puts in a local top and undergoes a sizable correction during the September–October 2025 window.
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
75% outcomecrypto“ETH will likely find a local top in September um on its Bitcoin pair”
The ETH/BTC ratio puts in a local top and undergoes a sizable correction during the September–October 2025 window.
- Made on
- 2025-08-20
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.98
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-10-31
The ETH/BTC ratio forms a local top during September 2025 (a peak followed by a decline) and undergoes a peak-to-trough decline of ≥15% within the September–October 2025 window.
Criterion: ETH/BTC forms a local top DURING September 2025 and undergoes a ≥15% peak-to-trough decline within the Sep–Oct window. The ≥15% decline is clearly satisfied — from the ~0.043 high (and ~0.038–0.040 Sept local highs) down to ~0.032–0.033 in October is roughly a 20–25% drop, driven by ETH underperforming BTC into and through the Oct 10 crash. Nuance/flag: the ABSOLUTE local top was Aug 24 (~0.043), four days after the Aug 20 call and just BEFORE the September window; within September proper the ratio made lower highs (~0.038–0.040) before declining. So 'a peak followed by a sizable correction across Sep–Oct' holds strongly, while 'the local top strictly formed during September' is a partial/loose match since the true peak was Aug 24. Evidence noted on both readings; no outcome value assigned.
Sources
ETH / BTC
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
ETH/BTC reclaimed 0.04 on Aug 23 and peaked ~0.043 on Aug 24, 2025 as ETH tagged a new all-time high (~$4,946) — the cycle local top for the ratio.
Through September the ratio trended lower (≈0.038 by Sep 17) with lower local highs, as analysts flagged a bearish head-and-shoulders setup on ETH/BTC.
In the Oct 10–11 crash ETH fell 17.8% (from ~$4,346 to ~$3,574) versus BTC's 16.9% and continued to underperform, dragging ETH/BTC into the ~0.032–0.033 area — a peak-to-trough decline well beyond 15% from the late-Aug/Sep highs.
Corrections
- tags: ETH/BTC ratio (both cryptocurrencies) → dictionary makes 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary.
Score contribution
+2.98- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- 75% outcome
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.98
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The ETH/BTC ratio puts in a local top and undergoes a sizab…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-08-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources