Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin sets its market-cycle top in Q4 2025 (end of the post-halving year), after a September pullback to the bull market support band.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“Bitcoin goes up in July and August, gets a pullback, generally speaking, to the bull market support band in September, and then goes into the market cycle top in Q4 of the post having year”
Bitcoin sets its market-cycle top in Q4 2025 (end of the post-halving year), after a September pullback to the bull market support band.
- Made on
- 2025-08-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
Bitcoin prints its highest price of the current market cycle at some point during Q4 2025 (Oct 1 – Dec 31, 2025) and declines sustainably thereafter.
Both prongs of the criterion satisfied: cycle-high price ($126,198) printed Oct 6, 2025 inside the Q4 window, followed by a sustained decline (still ~50% below the peak 9+ months later, July 2026). The specific '~$126K on Oct 6' peak is the exact cycle top the criterion asks about. The distinct September-pullback precondition of the broader claim is handled by the separate September records; this record scores only the Q4-top + sustained-decline criterion, which is met.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Pattern That Historically Ended The Bull Market
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin printed a new all-time high of ~$126,198 on Oct 6, 2025 (within Q4 2025), surpassing its prior mid-August ~$124,500 peak — this is the highest price of the cycle.
After a tariff shock and mass liquidations starting Oct 10, BTC fell below $105K, drifted into the $80,000s through Nov/Dec 2025, and reached ~$60K by early Feb 2026 — a sustained ~50% decline from the Q4 peak.
As of mid-July 2026 BTC trades ~$62K (Crypto.com BTC_USDT daily candles), i.e. roughly half the Oct 2025 peak; the $126K Oct 6 2025 top has not been exceeded, and analysts (e.g. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer) treat the October 2025 peak as the cycle top.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin cycle-top claim is crypto-specific; 'crypto' is the more-central primary tag.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin sets its market-cycle top in Q4 2025 (end of the po…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-08-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources