Full record
HitcryptoBitcoin returns to its 50-week SMA at some point within the next year (by ~July 2026).
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitcrypto“at some point over the next year, we'll probably see ourselves back at the 50we SMA”
Bitcoin returns to its 50-week SMA at some point within the next year (by ~July 2026).
- Made on
- 2025-07-06
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-11-17
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) trades down to touch or breach its 50-week simple moving average at some point on or before 2026-07-06.
Criterion (BTC touches or breaches its 50-week SMA on or before 2026-07-06) WAS satisfied: first breach ~mid-November 2025 (resolved_on set to the earliest documented breach date), with the level remaining broken thereafter. Deadline 2026-07-06 has passed as of the resolution date. Outcome value deferred. Note: the cited source references the 50-week EMA; the 50-week SMA sits nearby and was likewise breached given the depth/duration of the decline into the $60k–$80k range.
Sources
Bitcoin: The Importance of the 50 Week Moving Average
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin broke below its 50-week moving average in mid-November 2025 — described as the first time BTC showed major weekly weakness against the 50-week (E)MA that had acted as support through 2024–2025. Article dated 17 Nov 2025.
The breach persisted and deepened: BTC fell to the low-$80k/sub-$80k region by December 2025 and traded ~$62k in 2026 — far below the 50-week SMA, confirming the average was touched and decisively breached well before the 2026-07-06 deadline.
Corrections
- tags: Crypto price/level call: 'crypto' primary, 'markets' secondary.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin returns to its 50-week SMA at some point within the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-07-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources