Prediction record
HiteconomyThe US unemployment rate will rise over the summer of 2025
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hiteconomy“it's likely going to go higher, uh, over the summer”
The US unemployment rate will rise over the summer of 2025
- Made on
- 2025-06-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-09-05
The US unemployment rate (BLS U-3) is higher at the end of summer 2025 (August/September reading) than at the start of summer (May/June 2025 reading).
End-of-summer readings (Aug 4.3%, Sep 4.4%) are both higher than start-of-summer readings (May 4.2%, Jun 4.1%), satisfying the criterion. The rise was already established by the August report (published Sep 5, 2025), hence resolved_on; the delayed September report (released Nov 20 due to the federal government shutdown) reinforced it. Outcome value not assigned here.
Sources
Unemployment Rate Stays at 4.2%
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
BLS U-3 unemployment: 4.2% in May 2025 and 4.1% in June 2025 (start-of-summer readings).
BLS Employment Situation for August 2025 (released Sep 5, 2025): unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since Oct 2021; payrolls rose only 22,000.
Delayed September 2025 Employment Situation (released Nov 20, 2025 after the government shutdown): unemployment rate rose further to 4.4%.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
+2.76- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.76
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The US unemployment rate will rise over the summer of 2025- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-06-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources