Full record
HiteconomyThe US unemployment rate will rise over the summer of 2025
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“it's likely going to go higher, uh, over the summer”
The US unemployment rate will rise over the summer of 2025
- Made on
- 2025-06-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-05
The US unemployment rate (BLS U-3) is higher at the end of summer 2025 (August/September reading) than at the start of summer (May/June 2025 reading).
End-of-summer readings (Aug 4.3%, Sep 4.4%) are both higher than start-of-summer readings (May 4.2%, Jun 4.1%), satisfying the criterion. The rise was already established by the August report (published Sep 5, 2025), hence resolved_on; the delayed September report (released Nov 20 due to the federal government shutdown) reinforced it. Outcome value not assigned here.
Sources
Unemployment Rate Stays at 4.2%
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS U-3 unemployment: 4.2% in May 2025 and 4.1% in June 2025 (start-of-summer readings).
BLS Employment Situation for August 2025 (released Sep 5, 2025): unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since Oct 2021; payrolls rose only 22,000.
Delayed September 2025 Employment Situation (released Nov 20, 2025 after the government shutdown): unemployment rate rose further to 4.4%.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US unemployment rate will rise over the summer of 2025- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-06-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources