Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 makes its next meaningful low in August or September 2025.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I just want you to be aware that the next weakness in the market will likely be around August, September”
The S&P 500 makes its next meaningful low in August or September 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-06-19
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-30
The S&P 500's lowest close between 2025-06-19 and 2025-12-31 falls within August or September 2025.
Criterion: the S&P's lowest CLOSE across 2025-06-19 to 2025-12-31 must fall in Aug or Sep 2025. Aug and Sep were both up months hitting record highs, so they cannot contain the window minimum (the June window-start level was lower, and a deeper Nov–Dec correction followed). Low is outside Aug/Sep. Full-window minimum date not needed to resolve the criterion, but appears to be late-June 2025 or the Nov–Dec 2025 trough.
Sources
S&P 500: Year-To-Date Returns
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 rose +1.9% in August 2025 to record highs, then +3.5% in September 2025 (strongest September since 2010), a fifth straight monthly advance to fresh record highs. Neither month was a low; both were near-record peaks.
August 2025 saw the S&P 500 soar to record highs — confirming August was not a low point.
The index's meaningful drawdown in the window came in the Nov–Dec 2025 correction (Raymond James flagged an 8–10% 'corrective phase' in late Nov 2025; November was the first month since May 2025 to fail to set a new closing high). The window's lowest close therefore falls at the window start (late June 2025) and/or the Nov–Dec correction, not in Aug/Sep.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 makes its next meaningful low in August or Sept…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-06-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources