Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve's next rate cut will occur in September 2025 (no cut before September)
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“the base case should just simply be September”
The Federal Reserve's next rate cut will occur in September 2025 (no cut before September)
- Made on
- 2025-06-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-17
The US Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds target range at its September 2025 FOMC meeting, with no cut at the July 2025 meeting.
Both criterion conditions met: no cut at the July 2025 meeting AND a cut delivered at the September 2025 meeting. Directly matches the written criterion. Outcome value not assigned here (later stage).
Sources
Inflation Rises to 2.4%
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
July 29-30, 2025 FOMC held the federal funds target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% (no cut); Governors Bowman and Waller dissented in favor of a cut — first time two governors dissented since 1993.
September 16-17, 2025 FOMC lowered the target range by 25bp to 4.00%-4.25% (11-1 vote, Miran dissenting for a larger cut) — the first cut of the cycle, occurring at the September meeting.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve's next rate cut will occur in September…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-06-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources