Prediction record
MisseconomyThe Bank of Japan will raise its policy interest rate by September 2025 at the latest
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Misseconomy“We're likely going to have an increase in rates in Japan. Uh the Bank of Japan likely going to increase rates. My guess will be in September by the latest”
The Bank of Japan will raise its policy interest rate by September 2025 at the latest
- Made on
- 2025-06-09
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-09-30
The Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at a monetary policy meeting on or before 2025-09-30.
Criterion NOT met on the written test: the BoJ held at 0.5% at every meeting through 2025-09-30 (last eligible meeting Sept 18–19 was a hold). The subsequent hike came 2025-12-19, outside the window. resolved_on = deadline date, since the outcome is definitively settled by the passed deadline with no qualifying hike. No outcome value assigned per instructions.
Sources
Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
The Bank of Japan kept its policy short-term rate unchanged at 0.5% at its September 18–19, 2025 meeting (7-2 vote), maintaining rates through the deadline. No rate hike occurred on or before 2025-09-30.
The BoJ's first rate increase after this period came only on December 19, 2025, raising the policy rate to 0.75% (a 30-year high) — after the 2025-09-30 deadline.
Japan policy-rate history confirms the rate remained at 0.5% from January 2025 through the Sept 2025 meeting, with no hike in the June–September window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Score contribution
-1.12- Confidence
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Contribution
- -1.12
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
The Bank of Japan will raise its policy interest rate by Se…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-06-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources