Prediction record
HitmarketsBitcoin will experience price weakness / a pullback during Q3 2025 (July–September)
A scored record for Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored record
Hitmarkets“I think there'll be a pullback at some point in the third quarter, maybe around August, September”
Bitcoin will experience price weakness / a pullback during Q3 2025 (July–September)
- Made on
- 2025-06-04
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
Criterion
- Resolution status
- resolved
- Resolved on
- 2025-08-25
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) undergoes a pullback during 2025-07-01 to 2025-09-30 — a peak-to-trough decline of at least 10% at some point within the quarter (a lower high or lower low relative to the Q3 open).
Criterion (≥10% peak-to-trough decline at some point during Q3) satisfied: from the ~$124,533 mid-August ATH to ~$110,276 by Aug 25 (~11%), deepening to ~13% by early September. resolved_on set to ~2025-08-25 when the 10% threshold was first crossed; the full quarter window closed 2025-09-30 with the condition met.
Sources
Bitcoin: Supply in Profit & Loss
YouTube ·
Outcome evidence
Bitcoin set a Q3 peak all-time high of ~$124,533 in mid-August 2025, then declined to ~$108,000 by early September — roughly a 13% drawdown, exceeding the 10% peak-to-trough threshold within Q3 (Jul 1–Sep 30).
BTC closed at $110,276.60 on August 25, 2025 (down 2.8% that day), already ~11% below the ~$124,533 August ATH, confirming a >10% intra-Q3 pullback.
Later analysis noted BTC pulled back as much as ~25% from its ATH during the subsequent Q3/Q4 decline, well beyond the 10% criterion.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: 'likely' does not appear in this record's verbatim; the actual hedge markers are 'I think' and 'maybe'. verbatim_marker must reflect words actually used.
Score contribution
+2.27- Confidence
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Contribution
- +2.27
This page displays the scored record as published; the website doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Provenance
Bitcoin will experience price weakness / a pullback during…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- July 18, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-06-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources