Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin drops below its bull-market support band (pulling back toward its 100-week moving average) during Q3 2025.
A scored prediction by Benjamin Cowen, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“there will likely be a drop below the bull market support band in sort of the Q3 time frame, right?”
Bitcoin drops below its bull-market support band (pulling back toward its 100-week moving average) during Q3 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-06-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-30
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) trades below its bull-market support band (~20-week SMA/21-week EMA, roughly $94k at the time) at some point during Q3 2025 (July–Sep).
Criterion (BTC trades BELOW the bull-market support band at some point during Q3 2025) was NOT satisfied: the band held all of Jul–Sep 2025, with BTC's Q3 low ~$108k (early Sep) still well above it. The band was first breached only in November 2025, outside the Q3 window. Evidence points to the predicted event not occurring within the window; outcome scoring deferred to a later stage.
Sources
Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Bitcoin held above its bull-market support band (20W SMA / 21W EMA) throughout Q3 2025. Reporting confirms BTC did not break below the band until November 2025 — i.e., after Q3 and after the October ATH: 'Bitcoin fell below the band in November 2025, right after topping out near its $126,000 all-time high the month before.' During Q3 (Jul–Sep) BTC traded ~$108k–$126k, well above the rising band (which was in the low-$90k/$100k region).
Q3 2025 price path shows no visit to the band: BTC broke above $120k on 14 Jul 2025, set a new high ~$124k in August, and continued to a $126k ATH on 6 Oct 2025 — the whole quarter traded far above the ~$94k support band.
Corrections
- tags: Bitcoin-specific claim; 'crypto' should be primary.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin drops below its bull-market support band (pulling b…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-06-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources